pictures say thousands of words

the graphs are the price of futures contracts for each candidate for their respective party nomination.  the basics of these futures is that they pay out $100 if the candidate wins and $0 if they lose.  so it would have been sweet to buy on Obama’s dip (below $25) back in October ’07 and have it pay 4-to-1; shorting Clinton at the same time also would have paid off handsomely.

while there are shortcomings in these futures markets, they represent real people staking real money on the results — so they have more riding on them than an opinion given to a pollster.  and they represent something much more important than the current polls (which have Clinton and Obama virtually tied) — they represent the lead that Obama has and the virtual impossibility of Clinton to overcome it.  she can beat him 51% to 49% in every state from here to the end, and she still won’t overtake him on pledged delegates.  that might put her ahead in the overall popular vote, but well, that’s a topic for another post…

[images, futures quotes, charts: intrade]


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