the graphs are the price of futures contracts for each candidate for their respective party nomination. the basics of these futures is that they pay out $100 if the candidate wins and $0 if they lose. so it would have been sweet to buy on Obama’s dip (below $25) back in October ‘07 and have it pay 4-to-1; shorting Clinton at the same time also would have paid off handsomely.
while there are shortcomings in these futures markets, they represent real people staking real money on the results — so they have more riding on them than an opinion given to a pollster. and they represent something much more important than the current polls (which have Clinton and Obama virtually tied) — they represent the lead that Obama has and the virtual impossibility of Clinton to overcome it. she can beat him 51% to 49% in every state from here to the end, and she still won’t overtake him on pledged delegates. that might put her ahead in the overall popular vote, but well, that’s a topic for another post…
[images, futures quotes, charts: intrade]
